{"id":98221,"date":"2026-07-27T12:32:54","date_gmt":"2026-07-27T12:32:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/testedwebsite.us\/realestatee\/agent\/jeremyforbes04\/"},"modified":"2026-07-27T12:33:03","modified_gmt":"2026-07-27T12:33:03","slug":"jeremyforbes04","status":"publish","type":"agent","link":"https:\/\/testedwebsite.us\/realestatee\/agent\/jeremyforbes04\/","title":{"rendered":"jeremyforbes04"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u03a3\u03c4\u03c1\u03b1\u03c4\u03b7\u03b3\u03b9\u03ba\u03ae \u039a\u03ad\u03bb\u03b9 (Kelly Criterion): \u03a0\u03ce\u03c2 \u03bd\u03b1 \u03b4\u03b9\u03b1\u03c7\u03b5\u03b9\u03c1\u03b9\u03c3\u03c4\u03b5\u03af\u03c4\u03b5 \u03c4\u03bf Bankroll \u03c3\u03b1\u03c2<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u0398\u03b1 \u03ba\u03b5\u03c1\u03b4\u03af\u03c3\u03b5\u03b9 \u03b7 \u03a1\u03b5\u03ac\u03bb \u039c\u03b1\u03b4\u03c1\u03af\u03c4\u03b7\u03c2; \u0398\u03b1 \u03b2\u03b3\u03b5\u03b9 \u03c4\u03bf \u039a\u03cc\u03ba\u03ba\u03b9\u03bd\u03bf \u03c3\u03c4\u03b7 \u03c1\u03bf\u03c5\u03bb\u03ad\u03c4\u03b1; \u0388\u03c7\u03b5\u03b9 \u03b1\u03be\u03af\u03b1 \u03b1\u03c5\u03c4\u03cc\u03c2 \u03bf \u0386\u03c3\u03c3\u03bf\u03c2 \u03c3\u03c4\u03bf \u039a\u03cd\u03c0\u03b5\u03bb\u03bb\u03bf; \u039a\u03ac\u03bd\u03bf\u03c5\u03bd \u03b1\u03c4\u03ad\u03bb\u03b5\u03b9\u03c9\u03c4\u03b5\u03c2 \u03b1\u03bd\u03b1\u03bb\u03cd\u03c3\u03b5\u03b9\u03c2 \u03b3\u03b9\u03b1 \u03bd\u03b1 \u03b2\u03c1\u03bf\u03c5\u03bd \u03c4\u03bf “\u03a3\u03af\u03b3\u03bf\u03c5\u03c1\u03bf”. \u0391\u03bd \u03ad\u03c7\u03b5\u03c4\u03b5 \u03ad\u03bd\u03b1 \u03bc\u03b9\u03ba\u03c1\u03cc (\u03b1\u03bb\u03bb\u03ac \u03c5\u03c0\u03b1\u03c1\u03ba\u03c4\u03cc) \u03bc\u03b1\u03b8\u03b7\u03bc\u03b1\u03c4\u03b9\u03ba\u03cc \u03c0\u03bb\u03b5\u03bf\u03bd\u03ad\u03ba\u03c4\u03b7\u03bc\u03b1 (Edge), \u03b1\u03bb\u03bb\u03ac \u03c0\u03bf\u03bd\u03c4\u03ac\u03c1\u03b5\u03c4\u03b5 \u03c4\u03bf 50% \u03c4\u03bf\u03c5 \u03ba\u03b5\u03c6\u03b1\u03bb\u03b1\u03af\u03bf\u03c5 \u03c3\u03b1\u03c2 (Bankroll) \u03c3\u03b5 \u03ba\u03ac\u03b8\u03b5 \u03c3\u03c4\u03bf\u03af\u03c7\u03b7\u03bc\u03b1, \u03bb\u03cc\u03b3\u03c9 \u03c4\u03b7\u03c2 \u0394\u03b9\u03b1\u03ba\u03cd\u03bc\u03b1\u03bd\u03c3\u03b7\u03c2 (Variance) \u03b5\u03af\u03bd\u03b1\u03b9 **\u03bc\u03b1\u03b8\u03b7\u03bc\u03b1\u03c4\u03b9\u03ba\u03ac \u03b2\u03ad\u03b2\u03b1\u03b9\u03bf** \u03cc\u03c4\u03b9 \u03b8\u03b1 \u03c7\u03c1\u03b5\u03bf\u03ba\u03bf\u03c0\u03ae\u03c3\u03b5\u03c4\u03b5 \u03bc\u03b5\u03c4\u03ac \u03b1\u03c0\u03cc \u03ad\u03bd\u03b1 \u03c3\u03cd\u03bd\u03c4\u03bf\u03bc\u03bf \u03c3\u03b5\u03c1\u03af \u03b7\u03c4\u03c4\u03ce\u03bd. \u03a4\u03b7 \u03bb\u03cd\u03c3\u03b7 \u03c3\u03b5 \u03b1\u03c5\u03c4\u03cc \u03c4\u03bf \u03c0\u03c1\u03cc\u03b2\u03bb\u03b7\u03bc\u03b1 \u03ad\u03b4\u03c9\u03c3\u03b5 \u03c4\u03bf 1956 \u03bf \u03b9\u03b4\u03b9\u03bf\u03c6\u03c5\u03ae\u03c2 \u03b5\u03c0\u03b9\u03c3\u03c4\u03ae\u03bc\u03bf\u03bd\u03b1\u03c2 \u03c4\u03c9\u03bd Bell Labs, **John L. Kelly Jr.**, \u03b4\u03b7\u03bc\u03b9\u03bf\u03c5\u03c1\u03b3\u03ce\u03bd\u03c4\u03b1\u03c2 \u03c4\u03bf\u03bd \u03b4\u03b9\u03ac\u03c3\u03b7\u03bc\u03bf \u03c4\u03cd\u03c0\u03bf \u03c0\u03bf\u03c5 \u03c6\u03ad\u03c1\u03b5\u03b9 \u03c4\u03bf \u03cc\u03bd\u03bf\u03bc\u03ac \u03c4\u03bf\u03c5: **\u03a4\u03bf \u039a\u03c1\u03b9\u03c4\u03ae\u03c1\u03b9\u03bf Kelly (Kelly Criterion)**.<\/p>\n

\u0392\u03c1\u03af\u03c3\u03ba\u03bf\u03bd\u03c4\u03b1\u03c2 \u03c4\u03bf \u03a0\u03bf\u03c3\u03bf\u03c3\u03c4\u03cc (f*)<\/h2>\n

**1. In case you have any inquiries regarding wherever in addition to how to utilize https:\/\/novibeteisodosgr1.com<\/a>, you can email us with our website. \u03a4\u03b7\u03bd \u0391\u03c0\u03cc\u03b4\u03bf\u03c3\u03b7 \u03c4\u03bf\u03c5 \u03a3\u03c4\u03bf\u03b9\u03c7\u03ae\u03bc\u03b1\u03c4\u03bf\u03c2 (b):** \u03a0\u03cc\u03c3\u03b1 \u03c7\u03c1\u03ae\u03bc\u03b1\u03c4\u03b1 \u03b8\u03b1 \u03ba\u03b5\u03c1\u03b4\u03af\u03c3\u03b5\u03c4\u03b5 (\u039a\u03b1\u03b8\u03b1\u03c1\u03cc \u03ba\u03ad\u03c1\u03b4\u03bf\u03c2) \u03b3\u03b9\u03b1 \u03ba\u03ac\u03b8\u03b5 1 \u0395\u03c5\u03c1\u03ce \u03c0\u03bf\u03c5 \u03c1\u03b9\u03c3\u03ba\u03ac\u03c1\u03b5\u03c4\u03b5.<\/p>\n

\u039f \u039c\u03b1\u03b8\u03b7\u03bc\u03b1\u03c4\u03b9\u03ba\u03cc\u03c2 \u03a4\u03cd\u03c0\u03bf\u03c2 \u03b5\u03af\u03bd\u03b1\u03b9 \u03bf \u03b5\u03be\u03ae\u03c2:
**f* = [ (b * p) – q ] \/ b**<\/p>\n

*\u038c\u03c0\u03bf\u03c5:*
– **f*** (f-star): \u03a4\u03bf \u03c4\u03b5\u03bb\u03b9\u03ba\u03cc \u03c0\u03bf\u03c3\u03bf\u03c3\u03c4\u03cc \u03c4\u03bf\u03c5 Bankroll \u03c3\u03b1\u03c2 \u03c0\u03bf\u03c5 \u03a0\u03a1\u0395\u03a0\u0395\u0399 \u03bd\u03b1 \u03c0\u03bf\u03bd\u03c4\u03ac\u03c1\u03b5\u03c4\u03b5.
– **b (Odds):** \u0397 (\u0394\u03b5\u03ba\u03b1\u03b4\u03b9\u03ba\u03ae \u0391\u03c0\u03cc\u03b4\u03bf\u03c3\u03b7 – 1). \u0391\u03bd \u03b7 \u03b1\u03c0\u03cc\u03b4\u03bf\u03c3\u03b7 \u03b5\u03af\u03bd\u03b1\u03b9 2.00, \u03c4\u03bf b = 1.
– **p (Probability of Winning):** \u0397 \u03c0\u03b9\u03b8\u03b1\u03bd\u03cc\u03c4\u03b7\u03c4\u03b1 \u03bd\u03b1 \u03ba\u03b5\u03c1\u03b4\u03af\u03c3\u03b5\u03c4\u03b5 (\u03c3\u03b5 \u03b4\u03b5\u03ba\u03b1\u03b4\u03b9\u03ba\u03ae \u03bc\u03bf\u03c1\u03c6\u03ae, \u03c0.\u03c7. 55% = 0.55).
– **q (Probability of Losing):** \u0397 \u03c0\u03b9\u03b8\u03b1\u03bd\u03cc\u03c4\u03b7\u03c4\u03b1 \u03bd\u03b1 \u03c7\u03ac\u03c3\u03b5\u03c4\u03b5 (\u03c0\u03ac\u03bd\u03c4\u03b1 \u03b5\u03af\u03bd\u03b1\u03b9 1 – p. \u0386\u03c1\u03b1 1 – 0.55 = 0.45).<\/p>\n

\u03a4\u03bf \u039c\u03b1\u03b8\u03b7\u03bc\u03b1\u03c4\u03b9\u03ba\u03cc \u03a0\u03bb\u03b5\u03bf\u03bd\u03ad\u03ba\u03c4\u03b7\u03bc\u03b1 (Value)<\/h3>\n

\u0388\u03c3\u03c4\u03c9 \u03cc\u03c4\u03b9 \u03ad\u03c7\u03b5\u03c4\u03b5 \u03ad\u03bd\u03b1 \u03c3\u03c5\u03bd\u03bf\u03bb\u03b9\u03ba\u03cc \u03ba\u03b5\u03c6\u03ac\u03bb\u03b1\u03b9\u03bf (Bankroll) **1.000 \u0395\u03c5\u03c1\u03ce**. \u0391\u03c2 \u03b2\u03ac\u03bb\u03bf\u03c5\u03bc\u03b5 \u03c4\u03b1 \u03bd\u03bf\u03cd\u03bc\u03b5\u03c1\u03b1 \u03c3\u03c4\u03bf\u03bd \u03c4\u03cd\u03c0\u03bf Kelly:
– **b = 1** (\u0391\u03c0\u03cc\u03b4\u03bf\u03c3\u03b7 2.00 \u03bc\u03b5\u03af\u03bf\u03bd 1)
– **p = 0.55** (55% \u03c0\u03b9\u03b8\u03b1\u03bd\u03cc\u03c4\u03b7\u03c4\u03b1 \u03bd\u03af\u03ba\u03b7\u03c2)
– **q = 0.45** (45% \u03c0\u03b9\u03b8\u03b1\u03bd\u03cc\u03c4\u03b7\u03c4\u03b1 \u03ae\u03c4\u03c4\u03b1\u03c2)<\/p>\n

**f* = [ (1 * 0.55) – 0.45 ] \/ 1**
**f* = [ 0.55 – 0.45 ] \/ 1**
**f* = 0.10** (\u03ae 10%) \u0391\u03bd \u03c0\u03bf\u03bd\u03c4\u03ac\u03c1\u03b5\u03c4\u03b5 \u03c0\u03b5\u03c1\u03b9\u03c3\u03c3\u03cc\u03c4\u03b5\u03c1\u03b1 \u03b1\u03c0\u03cc 100\u20ac, \u03c0\u03b1\u03af\u03c1\u03bd\u03b5\u03c4\u03b5 \u03c5\u03c0\u03b5\u03c1\u03b2\u03bf\u03bb\u03b9\u03ba\u03cc \u03c1\u03af\u03c3\u03ba\u03bf (Overbetting) \u03ba\u03b1\u03b9 \u03ba\u03b9\u03bd\u03b4\u03c5\u03bd\u03b5\u03cd\u03b5\u03c4\u03b5 \u03bc\u03b5 \u03c7\u03c1\u03b5\u03bf\u03ba\u03bf\u03c0\u03af\u03b1 (Bankruptcy).<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Risk Level<\/th>\nThe Action<\/th>\n\u0391\u03c0\u03bf\u03c4\u03ad\u03bb\u03b5\u03c3\u03bc\u03b1 \/ \u03a0\u03cc\u03c4\u03b5 \u03bd\u03b1 \u03c4\u03bf \u03c7\u03c1\u03b7\u03c3\u03b9\u03bc\u03bf\u03c0\u03bf\u03b9\u03ae\u03c3\u03b5\u03c4\u03b5<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
**Full Kelly (\u03a4\u03bf 100% \u03c4\u03bf\u03c5 \u03a4\u03cd\u03c0\u03bf\u03c5)**<\/td>\n\u03a0\u03bf\u03bd\u03c4\u03ac\u03c1\u03b5\u03c4\u03b5 \u03b1\u03ba\u03c1\u03b9\u03b2\u03ce\u03c2 \u03c4\u03bf \u03c0\u03bf\u03c3\u03bf\u03c3\u03c4\u03cc \u03c0\u03bf\u03c5 \u03b2\u03b3\u03ac\u03b6\u03b5\u03b9 \u03bf \u03c4\u03cd\u03c0\u03bf\u03c2 (\u03c0.\u03c7. \u03c4\u03bf 10%).<\/td>\n\u0398\u03b5\u03c9\u03c1\u03b7\u03c4\u03b9\u03ba\u03ac \u03c4\u03ad\u03bb\u03b5\u03b9\u03bf, \u03b1\u03bb\u03bb\u03ac \u03c0\u03c1\u03b1\u03ba\u03c4\u03b9\u03ba\u03ac \u03b5\u03c0\u03b9\u03ba\u03af\u03bd\u03b4\u03c5\u03bd\u03bf. \u03a0\u03c1\u03bf\u03ba\u03b1\u03bb\u03b5\u03af \u03c4\u03b5\u03c1\u03ac\u03c3\u03c4\u03b9\u03b1 \u03c3\u03ba\u03b1\u03bc\u03c0\u03b1\u03bd\u03b5\u03b2\u03ac\u03c3\u03bc\u03b1\u03c4\u03b1 (Swings) \u03c3\u03c4\u03bf \u03c4\u03b1\u03bc\u03b5\u03af\u03bf \u03c3\u03b1\u03c2 (\u03bc\u03c0\u03bf\u03c1\u03b5\u03af \u03bd\u03b1 \u03c0\u03ad\u03c3\u03b5\u03c4\u03b5 50% \u03c0\u03c1\u03b9\u03bd \u03b1\u03bd\u03b5\u03b2\u03b5\u03af\u03c4\u03b5).<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
**Fractional Kelly (Half \u03ae Quarter Kelly)**<\/td>\n\u0394\u03b9\u03b1\u03c7\u03b5\u03af\u03c1\u03b9\u03c3\u03b7 \u039a\u03b9\u03bd\u03b4\u03cd\u03bd\u03bf\u03c5.<\/td>\n\u0398\u03c5\u03c3\u03b9\u03ac\u03b6\u03b5\u03c4\u03b5 \u03bb\u03af\u03b3\u03b7 \u03b1\u03c0\u03cc \u03c4\u03b7\u03bd “\u03a4\u03b1\u03c7\u03cd\u03c4\u03b7\u03c4\u03b1” \u03b1\u03bd\u03ac\u03c0\u03c4\u03c5\u03be\u03b7\u03c2 \u03c4\u03bf\u03c5 \u03c4\u03b1\u03bc\u03b5\u03af\u03bf\u03c5, \u03bc\u03b5 \u03b1\u03bd\u03c4\u03ac\u03bb\u03bb\u03b1\u03b3\u03bc\u03b1 \u03c4\u03b7\u03bd \u03b1\u03c0\u03cc\u03bb\u03c5\u03c4\u03b7 \u03b1\u03c3\u03c6\u03ac\u03bb\u03b5\u03b9\u03b1. \u039c\u03b5\u03b9\u03ce\u03bd\u03b5\u03b9 \u03c4\u03bf \u03ac\u03b3\u03c7\u03bf\u03c2 \u03ba\u03b1\u03c4\u03ac 90%. **\u0397 \u039a\u0391\u039b\u03a5\u03a4\u0395\u03a1\u0397 \u0395\u03a0\u0399\u039b\u039f\u0393\u0397.**<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Negative EV<\/td>\n\u03a4\u03bf \u039c\u03ae\u03bd\u03c5\u03bc\u03b1 \u03c4\u03b7\u03c2 \u039c\u03b1\u03b8\u03b7\u03bc\u03b1\u03c4\u03b9\u03ba\u03ae\u03c2.<\/td>\n\u03a0\u03c1\u03bf\u03c3\u03c4\u03b1\u03c3\u03af\u03b1.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n

\u039f\u03b9 \u03c0\u03b5\u03c1\u03b9\u03bf\u03c1\u03b9\u03c3\u03bc\u03bf\u03af \u03c4\u03bf\u03c5 \u03a3\u03c5\u03c3\u03c4\u03ae\u03bc\u03b1\u03c4\u03bf\u03c2<\/h2>\n

\u0391\u03c6\u03bf\u03cd \u03bf \u03c4\u03cd\u03c0\u03bf\u03c2 \u03c4\u03bf\u03c5 Kelly \u03b5\u03af\u03bd\u03b1\u03b9 \u03bc\u03b1\u03b8\u03b7\u03bc\u03b1\u03c4\u03b9\u03ba\u03ac “\u03c4\u03ad\u03bb\u03b5\u03b9\u03bf\u03c2”, \u03b3\u03b9\u03b1\u03c4\u03af \u03b4\u03b5\u03bd \u03c4\u03bf\u03bd \u03c7\u03c1\u03b7\u03c3\u03b9\u03bc\u03bf\u03c0\u03bf\u03b9\u03bf\u03cd\u03bd \u03cc\u03bb\u03bf\u03b9 \u03bf\u03b9 \u03c0\u03b1\u03af\u03ba\u03c4\u03b5\u03c2 \u03b3\u03b9\u03b1 \u03bd\u03b1 \u03b3\u03af\u03bd\u03bf\u03c5\u03bd \u03c0\u03bb\u03bf\u03cd\u03c3\u03b9\u03bf\u03b9; \u038c\u03bc\u03c9\u03c2, \u03c3\u03c4\u03bf **\u0391\u03b8\u03bb\u03b7\u03c4\u03b9\u03ba\u03cc \u03a3\u03c4\u03bf\u03af\u03c7\u03b7\u03bc\u03b1**, \u03b7 \u03c0\u03b9\u03b8\u03b1\u03bd\u03cc\u03c4\u03b7\u03c4\u03b1 (p) \u03b5\u03af\u03bd\u03b1\u03b9 **\u03a5\u03c0\u03bf\u03ba\u03b5\u03b9\u03bc\u03b5\u03bd\u03b9\u03ba\u03ae (Subjective)**! **\u03a3\u03c5\u03bc\u03c0\u03ad\u03c1\u03b1\u03c3\u03bc\u03b1:** \u03a4\u03bf \u039a\u03c1\u03b9\u03c4\u03ae\u03c1\u03b9\u03bf \u039a\u03ad\u03bb\u03b9 \u03b5\u03af\u03bd\u03b1\u03b9 \u03c4\u03bf \u03b1\u03c0\u03cc\u03bb\u03c5\u03c4\u03bf \u03b5\u03c1\u03b3\u03b1\u03bb\u03b5\u03af\u03bf \u03b5\u03c0\u03b9\u03b2\u03af\u03c9\u03c3\u03b7\u03c2, \u0391\u039b\u039b\u0391 \u03b1\u03c0\u03b1\u03b9\u03c4\u03b5\u03af (\u03b1) \u039d\u03b1 \u03b5\u03af\u03c3\u03c4\u03b5 \u03b9\u03ba\u03b1\u03bd\u03bf\u03af \u03bd\u03b1 \u03b2\u03c1\u03af\u03c3\u03ba\u03b5\u03c4\u03b5 “Value Bets” (\u03a3\u03c4\u03bf\u03b9\u03c7\u03ae\u03bc\u03b1\u03c4\u03b1 \u03bc\u03b5 \u03b8\u03b5\u03c4\u03b9\u03ba\u03ae \u03c0\u03c1\u03bf\u03c3\u03b4\u03bf\u03ba\u03af\u03b1) \u03ba\u03b1\u03b9 (\u03b2) \u039d\u03b1 \u03b5\u03af\u03c3\u03c4\u03b5 \u03b5\u03be\u03b1\u03b9\u03c1\u03b5\u03c4\u03b9\u03ba\u03ac \u03b1\u03c5\u03c3\u03c4\u03b7\u03c1\u03bf\u03af \u03bc\u03b5 \u03c4\u03b9\u03c2 \u03c0\u03b9\u03b8\u03b1\u03bd\u03cc\u03c4\u03b7\u03c4\u03b5\u03c2 \u03c0\u03bf\u03c5 \u03b4\u03af\u03bd\u03b5\u03c4\u03b5 (\u03bd\u03b1 \u03b5\u03af\u03c3\u03c4\u03b5 \u03b1\u03c0\u03b1\u03b9\u03c3\u03b9\u03cc\u03b4\u03bf\u03be\u03bf\u03b9, \u03cc\u03c7\u03b9 \u03b1\u03b9\u03c3\u03b9\u03cc\u03b4\u03bf\u03be\u03bf\u03b9).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","agent_location":[56],"agent_category":[],"class_list":["post-98221","agent","type-agent","status-publish","hentry","agent_location-los-angeles"],"cmb2":{"_agent_contact_details":{"_agent_attached_user":"","_agent_featured":"","_agent_job":"","_agent_email":"beaurutledge9423@samaltour.site","_agent_website":"","_agent_phone":"753917346","_agent_fax":""},"_agent_socials":{"_agent_socials":[{"network":"fab fa-pinterest"}]},"_agent_location":{"_agent_address":"14 Mcdowall Street","_agent_map_location":{"address":"","latitude":"","longitude":""}}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/testedwebsite.us\/realestatee\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/agent\/98221","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/testedwebsite.us\/realestatee\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/agent"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/testedwebsite.us\/realestatee\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/agent"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/testedwebsite.us\/realestatee\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=98221"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/testedwebsite.us\/realestatee\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=98221"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"agent_location","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/testedwebsite.us\/realestatee\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/agent_location?post=98221"},{"taxonomy":"agent_category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/testedwebsite.us\/realestatee\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/agent_category?post=98221"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}